Trampoline Park Revenue Ramp: A 3.2x Gap After Year One

Two parks owned by the same company, measured over the same three months, ran at about $100,000 and $321,667 a month. The first opened this year. The second was already trading in 2025.

Both figures come from disclosures by Lelantos Holdings (OTCID: LNTO), the parent of Airtopia Adventure Parks, which publishes park-level operating results every few weeks. The numbers are preliminary, unaudited and prepared by management. They are also the only running public revenue series we can find for individual trampoline and family entertainment parks in the United States.

That series matters for one reason. It lets a buyer replace the vaguest line in any pro forma, the first-year revenue estimate, with a ratio taken from parks that actually exist.

The ratio is unkind. A 31,512 sq ft (2,928 m²) park needs roughly $117,700 a month of revenue to cover average US retail rent, electricity, four supervision posts and its variable costs, with nothing left for maintenance, marketing, insurance or debt. The newest disclosed park ran at about $100,000 a month.

What follows is arithmetic, not a forecast. Every input is either disclosed by the operator or published by a statistical agency, and every conversion is written out so you can substitute your own numbers.

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1. Five parks, one company, and a spread that will not close

Airtopia operates five parks. Three were trading before 2026: San Antonio, Owasso and Hemet. McAlester was added to the platform during 2026. Tahlequah was built from the ground up inside a converted cinema and opened the same year.

The disclosures are not a financial statement. They are short releases that name a period and a handful of totals, sometimes with a category split, sometimes without. That inconsistency is itself informative: the categories the company chooses to publish are the ones it wants readers to see.

Table 1 lists what each release contains, with the period it covers and the basis on which the figure was prepared.

Three things stand out before any arithmetic. Hemet’s revenue is flat across every period it has disclosed: $3.98 million for 2025, a $1.90 million first half, a $965,000 third quarter. Tahlequah’s guidance implies roughly $1 million for its first full year. And the five-park total falls from $1.256 million in July to about $1.13 million in August, even though the number of parties hosted rose from 380 to 470.

That last pair is the interesting one. Revenue down 10% while party bookings rise 24% means the walk-in business moved in the opposite direction from the booked business. The company’s own numbers explain part of the movement: party revenue per booking fell from $524.22 to $479.86, a drop of 8.5%, so the mix shifted toward smaller events at the same time as it shifted toward more of them.

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2. Converting disclosures into a monthly rate

None of these releases is monthly except McAlester’s first full month. To compare parks, each figure has to be divided by the number of months it covers, and the basis has to travel with the result.

A reported actual divided by twelve is a measurement. A company estimate divided by three is a company estimate with a smaller number attached. Guidance divided by twelve is an intention. Mixing the three without labels is how a park ends up in a business plan that cannot be financed.

Table 2 keeps the labels visible.

The ratio a buyer needs sits in rows three and four. Hemet at $321,667 a month against Tahlequah at $100,000 is a multiple of 3.22. Using guidance against guidance instead, $333,333 against $83,333, the multiple is 4.00. Take the lower of the two and you are still assuming a new park reaches a third of a mature park’s revenue, which is more generous than most pro formas assume in year one.

Why the lower multiple is the safer one. The quarterly figures are three-month averages, so they smooth a bad month in either direction. Guidance is a target the company set for itself. When the two disagree, the average of what already happened is what a lender will test.

McAlester complicates the picture in a useful way. It earned $243,079 in its first full month, which is 2.4 times Tahlequah’s monthly run-rate and 75% of Hemet’s. The company has not published whether the site was built from scratch or converted from an existing operation, and that gap in the record matters: a site that inherits a customer base starts partway up the ramp, while a new build starts at the bottom. McAlester’s first month is therefore the right number to treat as an upper bound for a first month, not as a benchmark.

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3. What the other two parks must be earning

The July total covers five parks, and three of those parks have their own disclosed figures. Subtract them and the remainder has to belong to the other two.

This is arithmetic on disclosed totals, not a company statement. It also mixes periods: Hemet’s and Tahlequah’s contributions are quarterly averages, McAlester’s is a July actual. Treat the result as an order of magnitude, which is all a buyer needs from it.

If that holds, the established group sits between $295,609 and $321,667, while the ground-up build sits at $100,000. Two of those three figures are equal by construction, so the true spread inside the group could be wider than the 8.8% it shows here. Even so, the distance from the group to the newest park is about seven times the spread inside the group, which is the part of the table that survives the method.

The recurring revenue lines support the same reading from a different angle. Across the portfolio in July, memberships produced $160,361 against 10,131 active members, which is $15.83 per member per month. A mature membership base therefore contributes a floor that a new park does not have, and it is the line that grows slowest because it depends on accumulated visits rather than on a single good weekend. The membership price ladder behind that figure is where the floor is actually set. Membership revenue moved from $160,361 in July to $154,987 in August while 443 new members were added, which suggests the base is being replenished at roughly the rate it erodes.

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4. The fixed cost a reference box carries

To turn revenue into a judgement, the cost side needs the same treatment. The reference box is 31,512 sq ft (2,928 m²), the size declared in a Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation filing for a park that opened in October 2026. It is a normal mid-size trampoline park, and its floor area comes from a public filing rather than from a vendor claim.

Three cost lines are large enough to model from public data: rent, electricity and supervision labour. Everything else, including maintenance, marketing, insurance, card processing, royalties and debt service, is left out of this stack on purpose, so that the result is a floor rather than a total.

The rent line is the US retail average from CBRE’s second-quarter 2026 figures, applied without adjustment. A converted cinema or a dead mall anchor will often sign below that, and a dense suburban retail park will sign above it. The electricity line multiplies the CBECS public assembly intensity of 12.1 kWh per sq ft by the August 2026 US average commercial price of 14.47 cents. The labour line takes the OEWS median wage for recreation workers, $15.46, applies the ECEC part-time load of 1.25 to reach $19.33, and multiplies by four supervision posts across 3,796 open hours a year, which is 73 hours a week.

Divide the stack by the 3,796 open hours and the park spends $297.65 an hour simply to keep the lights on, the rent paid and four people on the floor. That is the number to hold in mind when someone proposes extending opening hours to catch late demand.

The stack excludes variable costs, so it cannot be compared with revenue directly. Card fees, food and beverage cost of goods, grip socks and party consumables all scale with volume. At a variable share of 20% of revenue, which is a working assumption rather than a published figure, the revenue needed to cover the fixed stack is $94,155 divided by 0.80, or $117,694 a month. At a 15% variable share the requirement falls to $110,771. At 25% it rises to $125,540.

Where this model came from: the 20% variable share is our own assumption, stated so you can replace it. The fixed inputs are published: CBRE for rent, EIA for electricity intensity and price, BLS for the wage and the benefit load, and a state licensing filing for the floor area. None of the operating parks in this article has published its own cost structure.

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5. Where each revenue level lands against that line

With a contribution rate of 80%, each revenue level in the series can be placed against the same fixed stack and the same debt assumption. The debt assumption is $1.2 million borrowed over ten years at 10%, the ceiling rate for an SBA 7(a) loan above $350,000, which costs $15,859 a month.

Read the first row carefully. At the newest park’s run-rate the box does not cover its own fixed cost even before maintenance, marketing or insurance, and the shortfall widens to about $30,000 a month once debt service is added. The fourth and fifth rows, which represent the established parks, leave $126,473 and $147,320 a month to absorb everything the stack excludes.

The second row is the one to keep. The figure of $130,088 is what Tahlequah’s own guidance implies for the fourth quarter: $1,000,000 for the year, less $309,735 booked in the opening period, less the $300,000 third-quarter estimate, leaves $390,265 for the last three months. At that level the park covers its fixed cost and almost covers its debt. Almost is the operative word, and it is where most first-year cash shortfalls live.

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6. The revenue a loan actually requires

Invert the ladder and you get a test that can be applied before a lease is signed. Required revenue equals the fixed stack plus debt service, divided by the contribution rate.

For $1.2 million of debt at 10% over ten years, that is $94,155 plus $15,859, divided by 0.80, which comes to $137,517 a month. For $1.5 million the payment rises to $19,823 and the requirement to $142,473. For a $2 million fit-out the payment is $26,431 and the requirement $150,733.

Set those against the series. The $137,517 requirement sits 38% above the newest park’s run-rate, 6% above Tahlequah’s implied fourth-quarter level, and 45% of the $304,295 average of the three established parks. A ground-up build with a fully debt-funded fit-out is therefore asking a first-year park to earn at a level that the disclosed first-year park did not reach, which is the arithmetic behind most requests for a longer interest-only period.

The other question buyers ask is how long the gap takes to close. No operator in this series publishes a ramp curve, so the only honest answer is conditional. Starting at $100,000 and growing at a constant monthly rate, the number of months to reach $295,609 is the natural logarithm of 2.956 divided by the natural logarithm of one plus the growth rate.

The third column is not a loss. It is the sum, month by month, of the difference between the mature level and what the park actually earned, and it exists to show how sensitive the answer is to the growth rate. Moving from 5% a month to 10% halves the time to maturity and cuts the cumulative distance by 47%. That sensitivity is the reason a ramp assumption belongs in the sensitivity table of a business plan rather than in the base case.

One honest note on the growth rate itself. Nothing in the disclosures supports 8% a month or 15% a month. Tahlequah’s own numbers imply an increase from roughly $100,000 to roughly $130,000 between the third and fourth quarters, which is about 9% a month across those three months. That is a single data point from a single park, and it is the only ramp evidence in the public record.

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7. What the data does and does not show

This analysis rests on one operator’s disclosures. Six limits matter, and each one changes how far a conclusion can travel.

One company, unauditedAll five parks belong to a single parent, and every figure is described in the releases as preliminary and unaudited. A second operator’s five parks could sit 30% higher or lower, and there is no public dataset to check.

No floor areasOnly one Airtopia property has a published size, a 50,000 sq ft cinema conversion that is not yet among the five trading parks. Without floor areas, revenue per square foot cannot be computed for any park in this article, so the comparison is per park rather than per unit of space. Two of the five could differ in size by half.

No opening datesThe Tahlequah release says the park opened in 2026 and reports $309,735 for its opening period to 30 June, but it does not say which month trading began. That figure therefore cannot be converted to a monthly rate, which is why it is absent from Table 2.

Estimates are not actualsThe third-quarter figures for Hemet and Tahlequah are company estimates rather than reported results, and the full-year figures are guidance. Three of the six park rows in the monthly table rest on management’s own expectation rather than on a closed ledger.

Categories are not additiveThe releases state that category figures represent components of broader reported revenue and should not be summed against the total. Any mix calculation, including the party revenue per booking derived above, therefore describes a line rather than a slice, and the residual cannot be read as a single named stream.

The gap is not proven to be a rampThe difference between $100,000 and $321,667 is consistent with a ramp, and it is also consistent with a smaller building, a weaker market, a newer competitive set, or a park that has not yet added its second and third attractions. Nothing in the disclosures separates those explanations. What the data does show is the size of the difference, which is the part a pro forma has to survive either way.

One further limit applies to the cost side. The fixed stack excludes maintenance, marketing, insurance, payment processing and royalties, and the 20% variable share is our assumption. A park with a high marketing spend or a franchise royalty will need materially more than $137,517 of monthly revenue to clear its debt.

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8. Three decision rules

Rule one: do not underwrite year one at more than 40% of a mature park. If a pro forma shows first-year revenue within 20% of a mature comparable, the assumption is not conservative but unfounded. The only disclosed pair in the same quarter sits at 31%.

Rule two: test the debt against year-one revenue, not year three. Required revenue is the fixed stack plus debt service divided by the contribution rate. If the resulting figure is more than 35% above the revenue you expect in the first twelve months, the structure needs more equity, a shorter build, or an interest-only period that covers the ramp. Worked at $1.2 million of debt, the requirement is $137,517 a month.

Rule three: price every incremental cost against the same contribution rate. Each extra dollar of rent per square foot on a 31,512 sq ft box adds $2,626 a month, which requires $3,283 more revenue at 80% contribution. Each additional supervision post adds $6,115 a month, requiring $7,643 of revenue. Two extra posts and a $3 rent premium together move the requirement by $25,134 a month, which is a quarter of the newest park’s entire revenue.

None of these rules forecasts what a particular park will earn. They convert a set of disclosed totals into thresholds that can be checked against a lease, a loan term sheet and a staffing plan before any of the three is signed. The build sequence, the equipment specification and the opening plan all follow from those thresholds rather than the other way round.

If you are sizing a park now, the useful next step is to run your own floor area, rent and staffing plan through the same three lines and see which of the five revenue levels you land on in month one. That comparison is what a design and quote request is for, and it is more informative when the numbers arrive with it.

Get a free design and quote →

Two supporting pages are worth reading alongside this one. The equipment and project approach explains how floor area and attraction count are fixed before pricing, and the design-to-delivery process sets out what a supplier needs from you in order to return a layout that matches a real budget. Two earlier analyses cover adjacent ground: the attendance floor a park has to clear, and the annual cost of an SBA loan of the size used here.

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FAQ

How much revenue does a trampoline park make in its first year?

The only disclosed ground-up example in this analysis guided to about $1 million for its first full year, which is roughly $83,000 a month, against a quarterly run-rate of about $100,000. A park in its first full month earned $243,079. Treat $83,000 to $250,000 a month as the plausible band and expect the bottom of it for a new build in a new market.

How long does a new trampoline park take to reach mature revenue?

No operator in this series publishes a ramp curve, so the answer has to be conditional. Starting at $100,000 a month and growing 8% a month, a park reaches $295,609 in about 14 months. At 5% it takes 22 months, at 15% about 8. The growth rate, not the starting point, decides the answer.

What revenue does a 30,000 sq ft trampoline park need to break even?

On the reference box in this article, about $117,700 a month covers rent at the US retail average, electricity, four supervision posts and variable costs, with nothing left for maintenance, marketing, insurance or debt. Add $1.2 million of debt at 10% and the requirement rises to about $137,500 a month. Both figures move with local rent and local wages.

Should a lender look at year-one or year-three revenue?

Both, for different purposes. Year-one revenue tests whether the park can service debt while it is still building its base, and it is the stricter test. Year-three revenue tests whether the investment is worth making at all. A plan that only shows year three is asking the lender to fund a gap that nobody has sized.

Why is a mature trampoline park worth three times a new one?

Because the mature park has accumulated the three things a new park cannot buy: a membership base that pays every month, a party pipeline booked weeks ahead, and a local reputation that produces walk-in traffic without paid acquisition. In the disclosed portfolio, memberships alone produced $160,361 in a month across five parks, and that line depends on tenure rather than on a single weekend.

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Sources

1. Lelantos Holdings, “Reports $1.26 Million in July Revenue Across Five Airtopia Parks”, 4 September 2026. lelantosholdings.io
2. Lelantos Holdings, “Reports $1.13 Million in August Revenue as Party Bookings Climb 24%”, 15 September 2026. lelantosholdings.io
3. Lelantos Holdings, “Reports $243,079 in Unaudited Revenue for McAlester’s First Full Month”, 13 August 2026. lelantosholdings.io
4. Lelantos Holdings, “Highlights Airtopia Tahlequah, the Next Step in Its Ground-Up Growth Strategy”, 23 July 2026. lelantosholdings.io
5. Lelantos Holdings, “Highlights Airtopia Hemet as Airtopia’s California Growth Platform”, 21 July 2026. lelantosholdings.io
6. CBRE, “Q2 2026 US Retail Figures”, July 2026, US average asking rent $24.79 per sq ft. cbre.com
7. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2025, occupation 39-3091 Recreation Workers, median $15.46. bls.gov
8. US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026, private industry part-time compensation and benefit load. bls.gov
9. US Energy Information Administration, CBECS 2018 Table C22, public assembly electricity intensity 12.1 kWh per sq ft, and Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.A, August 2026 US average commercial price 14.47 cents per kWh. eia.gov
10. Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation, project TABS2026013038, 31,512 sq ft and $1,200,000 declared fit-out. tdlr.texas.gov